Things got ugly the last time the Boston Bruins hosted the Montreal Canadiens. The Bruins had one of their most complete games of the season in Montreal on November 15 in a 3-2 win, but the Canadiens returned the favor with a 6-2 drubbing at TD Garden on December 23.
The Atlantic Division has been a gauntlet all season, and there is no better representation of that than how much of a swing the Bruins-Canadiens matchup can have on each team's playoff chances. While playoff probabilities involve many variables, the Bruins need this game on Saturday night.
HockeyStats.com is one of the most in-depth advanced analytics sites. They offer plenty of options for hockey fans to go deeper with their team, and their game predictions feature a table that shows how the team's playoff chances shift with a win or a loss. For the Bruins on Saturday night, a win will elevate their playoff chances to 53%, while a regulation loss will drop them to 39%.
For people who may be skeptical of advanced analytics, it's easy to see why. With a win, the Bruins get within one point of the Canadiens for third in the Atlantic Division. With a loss, they'll be five points back, which can be a large hill to climb.
On the other end of the spectrum, a Bruins win will get them five points ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs in the wild card race after their devastating loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday night. The Leafs have a challenging schedule coming up, and a five-point buffer feels significant.
This game also has far-reaching implications for the Canadiens that fans may not realize. With a regulation win, Montreal's probability skyrockets to 80% as they go on a 98-point pace, while a regulation loss drops them to 67% on a 96-point pace.
The expected threshold for making the playoffs this season is around 95 points. A regulation win puts the Bruins on a 94-point pace, which will make for quite an intriguing final two months of the season. It feels too early for a game to be a must-win, but with a trade deadline decision looming and a competitive Atlantic Division, this Saturday night rivalry matchup is one of the most crucial games of the season.