The Boston Bruins have an interesting decision to make. The club has multiple players entering the final year of their current deals. Among them, one of the most complex situations is that of Casey Mittelstadt.
The 27-year-old has seemingly found a home in Boston. He’s looked decent in a top-six role. And the time is nearing for the Bruins to consider an extension. While that’s a good idea overall, the price tag floating around just doesn’t make sense.
A recent estimation placed Mittelstadt’s next contract around four years and $26 million. That may not seem like a lot given some of the numbers thrown around this summer. But it’s just too much for the Bruins to pay for a guy that scores 15 goals and 40+ points.
Let’s unpack that for a second. Paying $6.5 million AAV for Mittelstadt looks tough, particularly when you have a back-to-back 30-goal scorer in Morgan Geekie making $5.5 million against the cap.
So, what’s it going to be? $5.5 million for 30+ goals, or $6.5 million for 15 tallies?
That’s why it just doesn’t make any sense for the Bruins to sign Mittelstadt to such a deal. Yes, it’s worth keeping Mittelstadt around, just not at that price tag.
Mittlestadt would be more valuable if he were a center
You could argue that Casey Mittelstadt is worth $6.5 million if he were a center. Alas, he is not. The former Buffalo Sabres first-round pick has seemingly settled into a middle-six winger role. And that’s perfectly fine. If his ceiling is, say, 15 to 20 goals and 40 to 50 points, that’s just dandy.
But the entire problem in this conversation is the price tag. Locking up nearly $7 million per year on a winger with limited upside just doesn’t make sense.
The discussion would be completely different if the Mittelstadt were the second-line center the Colorado Avalanche thought he was. That’s why Colorado signed him to his current deal. The Avalanche thought he had top-six center upside.
Unfortunately, that’s not really the case.
Unless the Bruins think Mittelstadt can still blossom into a center that can play with the likes of David Pastrnak and JJ Peterka, the organization might be better off reassessing a potential extension.
Should Boston consider moving Mittelstadt?
The Bruins should keep a Mittelstadt extension on the back burner. The rationale for that assessment is simple. Boston could use Mittelstadt as a trade chip down the line. We all know how tight the trade market can get, especially at the deadline.
That’s why the Bruins would do well to hold off on an extension until later next season. Beyond keeping Mittelstadt as a potential trade chip, it also allows the team to assess if he’s really worth his projected contract.
Perhaps a resurgent year would allow the Bruins to feel comfortable about paying him $6.5 million for the next four years. To get there, it would take something like a 30-goal, 70-point season playing mostly down the middle.
We shall see. There might still be some upside there for Mittelstadt to finally reach his full potential.
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