One of the worst things any pundit can do is bet against the Boston Bruins. Time and again, talking heads have called for the Bruins’ utter demise.
And yet, the somehow find a way to make the experts look silly.
That was the case last season. Boston made a 24-point jump after a disastrous 2024-25 season. The club got heroic performances from the usual suspects, Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak, and, above all, Jeremy Swayman, and made it back to the postseason.
And while the Bruins ultimately succumbed in the first round, they gave the Buffalo Sabres everything they could handle.
That’s why The Athletic’s latest projection for the Bruins’ regression this season seems off. In particular, the cited reason is simply an inability to continue bucking the trend.
“The best case for a decline: Regression to the mean. It’s hard to assume that Boston will continue to outperform its underlying numbers.”
In short, the argument hinges on the team’s inability to defy underlying stats such as creating the 29th-most high-danger chances, but scoring the 10th-most goals.
Also, Morgan Geekie’s otherworldly 22 shooting percentage cannot hold up forever. Therein lies the argument for the Bruins: Not falling off a cliff, but just regressing to the mean.
But you have to think that a team like the Bruins has always found a way to get the best out of its players. An elite sniper like Pastrnak just makes everyone around him better. Pedestrian players look a heck of a lot better just by being on the same line as him.
And if Pastrnak and McAvoy continue their elite play, the rest of the team around them only has to be good to make up the rest of the difference.
Bruins have an elite goalie, and that may be the difference
There’s a lot to be said about teams with elite goalies. We’ve seen how, time and again, great teams with average goalies struggle to excel. Meanwhile, average teams with outstanding netminders can find ways of winning games they shouldn’t.
Oftentimes, a high-end goalie can be enough to squeak by a playoff series. An outstanding goaltender can lead his team on a magical playoff run.
That’s what the Bruins have in Jeremy Swayman. If he can continue the path he’s on, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Boston put a dent in the Atlantic Division. There will be games that the Bruins shouldn’t win, but they will. That will contrast with other teams that have average netminders who blow games at times.
With Swayman, all the Bruins have to do is play well enough to win. They only need to buy time for Pastrnak to break games open. Up-and-coming stars like James Hagens should make their mark on the team. And with a solid blue line, Swayman can be the difference between being in the mushy middle and climbing into an Eastern Conference playoff spot.
We can even venture out to state the following: Even if the Bruins regress to the mean, having a guy like Swayman can be the ultimate difference-maker. That’s why there’s so much to like about Boston this season.
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