The Boston Bruins are looking for a much better effort when they defend home ice for the second time in their first round series against the Buffalo Sabres. The first game didn't go as planned, with the Bruins looking like they weren't ready right right the drop of the puck, and clearly, Marco Sturm didn't like what he seen as he made some bold lineup changes heading into Game 4.
With it clear that the kid line had hit a wall and the uncertainty of inserting James Hagens on another line, Sturm decided that the rookie would sit out Game 4. Instead, Lukas Reichel will play in his place in his first career playoff game. A similar thing is going on with the blueline, as Mason Lohrei is coming out and Jordan Harris is going in for his first career postseason game.
The new lines don't have a massive sample size together, but there might be enough to justify Sturm's decision, according to a new NHL Analytics site.
Lukas Reichel - Fraser Minten - Marat Khusnutdinov
Instead of putting the lines in a blender, the head coach made a simple switch of swapping Hagens for Reichel. It might not have the surprise factor of doing something bigger like swapping Pastrnak and Hagens to give both the first and third lines a different look, but it gives the trio some familiarity after playing 14:18 of five-on-five together during the regular season.
It's barely enough of a sample size to dictate anything, but the new-look third line did have some success together. They had 14 scoring chances compared to allowing 11, resulting in a 56% corsi. By comparison, the kid line had 37 for and 41 against in 46:36 together during the regular season and playoffs combined.
The popular opinion on social media was that Michael Eyssimont should've been the replacement instead of Reichel. With Eyssimont playing 30:48 with Minten and Khusnutdinov this season and showing incredible success, it's hard to argue with the narrative. The trio had 36 scoring chances compared to 22 against.
Jordan Harris - Hampus Lindholm
The new pairing of Harris and Hampus Lindholm have even less of a sample size together this season. The pair played 11:54 over two games, owning a 60% Corsi with 12 chances for and eight against.
It's much better than the numbers of Lohrei and Lindholm in these playoffs, as they have 15 chances for compared to 31 against. They also have 0.70 expected goals for, compared to 1.06 against. It was time to make a change for the Bruins, or risk getting even further dominated.
While the advanced numbers don't guarantee anything, it's clear to see why Sturm made the decisions he did if he was looking at it from an analytical standpoint.
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