The Boston Bruins will line-up tonight in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against the St. Louis Blues. It’s fair to say that winning the face-off battle will play a significant role in winning the series; especially when you’re matching two of the best in the NHL against each other.
In Ryan O’Reilly of the St. Louis Blues and Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins, you’ve got two perennial Selke Trophy nominees; two guys that you know you can trust on a draw late in a vital game. The fact that they’ll be facing off against each other, though perhaps not directly as often as you might expect, just adds more intrigue.
What’s intriguing in particular heading into the Stanley Cup Final is that, in the post-season, O’Reilly’s usually impressive face-off winning percentage is a rather lacklustre 48.7% through 19 games. Granted, he has taken the most draws of any player still in the contest with 470 face-offs so far, but this is a guy that put up a regular season percentage through 82 games of 56.86%.
Patrice Bergeron, by comparison, for the Boston Bruins has a 59.3% face-off winning percentage with his 366 draws ranking behind only O’Reilly. He, in the regular season, was in fact marginally behind his St. Louis counterpart with a 56.6% winning total across 65 games.
This contest will obviously be a determining factor in the outcome of the series, especially if Ryan O’Reilly isn’t able to find his game and Bergeron continues his playoff dominance, especially in the circle.
Should Patrice Bergeron be unhindered by the occasion, which you might expect from a player that is returning to the Stanley Cup Final, we could well see his first-line unit routinely gaining puck possession – a dangerous move at the best of times, what with the talents of David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand.
Beyond the obvious pair of dominant face-off men in the contest, there is a decent amount of depth in the line-ups. The Boston Bruins know another of the Blues’ centers well, that guy being Tyler Bozak. Boston lined up regularly against him during his long tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs, including in playoff action.
Bozak’s 52.3% winning percentage this playoffs ranks him second on the St. Louis Blues and gives them a very able option to put out there for a draw. Brayden Schenn, likewise offers further depth to the face-off line-up the Blues are able to field, with a 49% success rate; given though that he is typically manning the top line, he could find himself majorly over-matched.
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Add in Ivan Barbashev, who has only taken 114 draws this post-season but rocks a team leading 52.6% and Oscar Sundqvist, who is less impressive at 44.7%, but still more than able and you have quite a formidable group to be facing up to.
Thankfully, the Boston Bruins don’t just rely upon Bergeron; they too have plenty of depth on the face-off dot. David Krejci on the second line is rocking a 52.5% success rate that sees only Barbashev and Bergeron rank higher than him, meaning the Bruins have two of the three best face-off men this post-season in their line-up.
The Bruins are then able to call upon their trade deadline revelation, Charlie Coyle at 49.2% and a combination on the fourth line of Sean Kuraly and Noel Acciari.
Noel Acciari is sitting at 53.8% and Sean Kuraly has truly proven his value on the bottom line with a brilliant 54.2% total across the post-season so far.
This is where the Boston Bruins will be able to win the game. Whilst the Blues can roll out Barbashev; should they get caught out with Sundqvist out there on an icing call, suddenly it doesn’t look too great for them.
Likewise, the fact that only Charlie Coyle on the Bruins sits below a 50% marker and even then it’s by 0.8% and it’s looking quite daunting if you’re a St. Louis Blues center man.
There has been much said about whether there is true value in winning a face-off and whether it makes that much of a difference. The way I see it, any minor detail is going to count for something in the Stanley Cup Final, especially if it means retaining puck possession.
The Boston Bruins are set up to succeed in this regard, let’s hope they maintain their high standards.