Top 3 reasons why the Boston Bruins will win Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs
The Boston Bruins head into the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, looking to put last season’s early exit deep into the rearview mirror.
The Boston Bruins Stanley Cup aspirations may have ended early last season, so you can expect an ultra-motivated team to show up for the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It all begins on April 20th against a heated rival, and you couldn’t ask for a better series when you check out the entire slate of games for Round 1.
If we had Rangers-Isles or Oilers-Canucks, that might have changed some. Sure, you got the Florida teams going at it, but when it comes to the Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs, there are 100 years of intense hockey built up.
Yet you can honestly argue that, despite how intense and physical this playoff series will be, that the Bruins hold an edge here. Let’s talk about why Boston will end this series against Toronto with a W and advance to the Second Round.
The Bruins already know how to beat Toronto
In case you haven’t heard, the Bruins swept the Maple Leafs, and they did so by an average of 3.75 to 1.75 goals per game. This isn’t saying the Maple Leafs didn’t give Boston a rough time, as their first contest ended in a shootout, and their second game ended in overtime.
But Boston made quick work of the Maple Leafs in their third meeting, winning by a score of 4-1, and this came in a contest when they recorded starts in the offensive zone just 22.2 percent of the time with a Corsi For of 42.1 and a faceoff win percentage of 44.4 percent. And remember, the Leafs also had four power play opportunities, yet converted none of them.
Fast-forward to March 7th, which served as the season finale between the two teams, and the Bruins again edged out the Leafs by three goals. Once again, they looked awful on paper, or should have, winning just 24.4 percent of their faceoffs with a Corsi For of 42.5 percent. Once again, Boston’s penalty kill all but stifled the Leafs, who scored just one goal in four opportunities.
Overall, Boston has shown us that defensively, Toronto’s scorers have yet to figure them out. Playoff hockey may be different from regular season hockey, but unless Toronto comes up with something, it’s tough to be confident in the Leafs.
Boston is much more well-coached than Toronto
The Bruins went through some turnover between the end of the 2022-23 season and when the puck first dropped in October 2023. Last year, the Bruins were supposedly “too old,” and they ranked third in the league in age. While they didn’t last in the playoffs, Boston still enjoyed a stellar regular season and easily won the Presidents’ Trophy.
Following an offseason when they lost players like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, among others, meant an improbable downfall. Only it didn’t come, and the Bruins were leading the Atlantic Division for most of the season, and the division title came down to the final game when the Florida Panthers edged them out by a point.
Such epic performances and back-to-back 109-plus-point seasons are a testament to head coach Jim Montgomery, who continues to make the most out of what he has. On paper, you would think Toronto is the better hockey team, with their lead-leading 303 goals for and the fact some of their best forwards are elite two-way players.
But in back-to-back seasons, Montgomery’s Bruins have gotten the best of Toronto, and it foreshadows what could happen over the next four-to-seven games. While the Maple Leafs are a good hockey team that shouldn’t surprise anyone if they beat the Bruins, it would be far less shocking to see Boston win this one.
Boston has outstanding goaltending regardless of who they roll with
The Bruins have a pair of great goaltenders, and realistically, they could go with both in a timeshare if they wanted. While we don’t often see a goaltending tandem rotate in the playoffs, the Bruins are in a special circumstance, and they know it.
But the question isn’t who they will put in the net for Games 1 through 4, and if necessary, 5 through 7. It is, but that’s not the question in this section. Instead, we need to ask ourselves whether Auston Matthews and company will finally find a way to A, make something happen when they’re on Boston’s side of the ice and B, find a way to get the puck past the goaltenders.
Toronto may be the highest-scoring team in the league this season, but only seven of those 303 goals they led the league with came against the Bruins. Until the Maple Leafs prove otherwise, it’s hard to sit here and predict they will win this playoff series.
As it stands, the Bruins may not look as star-studded as the Maple Leafs on paper. But in practice, they have been the better team in all four games, even the two that ended in a shootout and in overtime.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)