2 reasons the Boston Bruins eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs, 1 reason they don't

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And we meet again.

Atlantic Division rivals, the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs, will meet in the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. This match-up didn't seem possible two weeks ago, however, after the Bruins dropped three of their final four games of the regular season to the Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, and Ottawa Senators, they went from winning the division to finishing in second place.

Boston won all four regular-season meetings, but as anyone knows at this time of year, throw the records and regular-season stats out the window. It's going to be interesting to see how this series ends up shaking out and here are two reasons the Bruins will win the series and one reason they won't.

Win: Bruins special teams bounce-back in the playoffs

The Bruins power play struggled down the stretch of the regular season and it was really scary how bad the first power play unit struggled. Pavel Zacha scored a power play goal against the Senators, but their man advantage was pretty non-existent over the last month.

Zone entries, overpassing, you name it, they struggled. Justin Brazeau found the back of the net on the second unit, but an injury on April 2 against the Nashville Predators has had him out of the lineup. As for the Bruins' penalty kill, it's going to be severely tested by a potent Maple Leafs' team, and staying out of the box is going to be key as limiting Auston Matthews and Co. power play chances is going to be key, no matter how much they have struggled and how good the Bruins' penalty kill has been.

Win: Goaltending

In the last two seasons, the Bruins have had the best goaltending in the NHL. Linus Ullmark won the Vezina Trophy last season but was hampered by an injury in the playoffs against the Florida Panthers who rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to win in seven games. Jim Montgomery went to Jeremy Swayman in Game 7 and maybe he should have gone to him a game or two earlier. He didn't and despite Swayman playing well in Game 7, the Panthers still won in overtime.

This season Swayman played better than his teammate for a good part of the season, but over the last month, Ullmark had the better of the play. Historically, Swayman's numbers against Toronto are better than Ullmark's and it would not be surprising to see him start Game 1. In fact, if Montgomery continues to go with the rotation, then it's Swayman's turn. If there is one clear-cut advantage in this series for the Bruins, it's between the pipes. If Swayman and Ullmark can outplay whoever is goal for the Maple Leafs, Boston advances. If they struggle, it certainly opens the door for the Maple Leafs to win the series.

Loss: Bruins don't get depth scoring

If there's one thing you can expect in this series, it's that the Maple Leafs will fire a lot of rubber at Swayman and Ullmark and just how many go in remains to be seen. However, there were times this season where the Bruins lost games because they failed to get a lot of depth scoring behind David Pastrnak. That can't happen against Toronto and if this series turns into a shootout on a nightly basis, that moves the needle in favor of the Maple Leafs, big time.

There was a huge drop off in terms of production after Pastrnak this season and that can't happen in the postseason. Danton Heinen has been a nice story, but Brad Marchand, Zacha, Charlie Coyle, and Jake DeBrusk are going to have to find their way onto the scoresheet. DeBrusk is a big wild card in the series as when he's on, he's 'scoring and making plays, creating opportunities. When he's not, he hasn't been noticeable on the ice. Production from the defensemen is also going to be key.

This is a very interesting first-round series. It could go either way and it wouldn't be surprising to see either team advance to the second round and the other have their season end in early May. Buckle up!

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