The Boston Bruins, theoretically, should be in a great place heading out of the Olympic break. The team has been overachieving despite some unfortunate injuries, but a 4-2 win in a crucial game against the Columbus Blue Jackets gives hope that the healthy, fresh team is only just reaching the peak of its powers. However, a recent article from Fluto Shinzawa via The Athletic shows that some analysts around the league aren't so sure.
"It's not their game play. It's their exceptional rate of scoring," said John Healy, chief operating officer of Clear Sight Analytics. "If that goes back to just normal over the final third of the season, then you would have to expect them, playing in this really negative environment, to really tail off."
Healy gets into a lot of analytics showing the Bruins are scoring at an unsustainable rate. It isn't that surprising when you consider people are already predicting a Morgan Geekie regression, but Bruins fans will ask whether the good luck will run out or whether they can ride it to the end of the season. The good news is that teams have broken through Clear Sight Analytics predictions of being unsustainable before.
Bruins depth could be a concern
The one thing I do worry about is the depth of talent in the Bruins' lineup. If Boston had three scoring lines that could pick up each other's slack, it'd feel more comfortable, but this lineup does feel combustable if a few players start to slump.
The Bruins are 28 points away from the projected playoff cut line of 99 points. They have 24 games to get there, meaning a record of 12-10-2 would theoretically get them into the playoffs. The win over the Blue Jackets was huge considering they were the team chasing the Bruins, and the approaching trade deadline is soon going to see some teams below Boston bowing out of the playoffs in favor of being sellers.
The advanced analytics portion of the media isn't as confident in the Bruins, but the fans' eye-test is saying to be confident in the team's chances.