Bruins: Breaking down and analyzing Boston’s protected list
With the Seattle Kraken expansion draft just three days away (not counting today, Sunday, July 18), 30 NHL teams, excluding the Vegas Golden Knights, were required to submit their protected players lists for the draft last night. This morning, the lists were revealed. There were some surprises for other teams, but the Boston Bruins‘ list came as expected.
The 30 teams that are participating in the upcoming draft had two options to choose from when protecting players: 1) seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie. 2) eight total skaters if they felt the need to protect more than three defensemen and a goalie. The B’s went with the first option.
Players with any type of no-movement clauses (NMC) in their contracts have to be protected, unless the player agreed to waive the clause. However, players with no-trade clauses do not have to be protected as being selected in the expansion draft doesn’t count as a trade.
There are also rules when it comes to leaving players exposed:
First, at least one defenseman who is under contract for the 2021-22 season and has played at least 40 NHL games in the 2020-21 season or has played at least 70 NHL games over the previous two seasons has to be exposed.
Second, at least two forwards who are under contract for the 2021-22 season and have played at least 40 games in the 2020-21 season or have played at least 70 games over the previous two seasons have to be exposed.
Third, at least one goalie who is under contract for the 2021-22 season or will be a restricted free agent (RFA) after the 2020-21 season has to be exposed. If the goalie is a RFA, they must have received their qualifying offer before the protected list was submitted.
Players exempt from the draft include first- and second-year professionals, unsigned draft selections, and players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the last 60 consecutive games (or have been confirmed to have career-threatening injuries).
Additionally, pending unrestricted free agents (UFA) do not have to be protected by their most recent team. However, Seattle does have today, July 18, to Wednesday, July 21, to sign unprotected UFAs. If they do sign an UFA during this period, it counts as the selection for that team. Example: If the Kraken signed Taylor Hall between today and Wednesday, it would count as Seattle’s pick for the Black and Gold.
Forwards protected by the Bruins.
As mentioned earlier, the B’s went with the seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie protection option. The forwards included:
- Patrice Bergeron – center
- Brad Marchand – left wing
- David Pastrnak – right wing
- Charlie Coyle – center
- Craig Smith – right wing
- Jake DeBrusk – left wing
- Trent Frederic – center
Reason for protection:
Bergeron, Marchand, and Coyle:
All three of these forwards have one thing in common: NMCs. Having a NMC means they must be protected. Besides Coyle, they almost certainly would’ve been protected anyway.
Pastrank and Smith:
The team’s top two right wings. Pastrnak is one of the league’s top goal scorers and nearly potted 50 in a shortened 2019-20 season. Smith is an almost-guarantee for 20+ goals a season and proved to be a vital part of the second line after Taylor Hall was acquired.
DeBrusk:
Many fans wanted DeBrusk to be left exposed after a horrid season. But the fact is that DeBrusk has scored 20+ goals in two out of four NHL seasons and nearly scored 20 again in a shortened 2019-20. Maybe with fans and being able to go about his business without restrictions will resurrect the young winger.
Frederic:
Frederic signed a two-year extension with the B’s nearly a month ago now. Some thought it was to leave him exposed, but it appears to be more of an actual bridge deal now that he has been protected. Being able to play both left wing and center makes him versatile and he has shown that he can do other things besides hit the opposition. Freddy could be a huge part of the B’s bottom-six for a while if he can develop.
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Forwards left exposed by the Bruins:
- Nick Ritchie – left wing
- Curtis Lazar – center
- Chris Wagner – right wing
- Ondrej Kase – right wing
- Karson Kuhlman – right wing
Reason for exposure:
Ritchie:
Ritchie scored a career-high 15 goals this season but most of the goals came early on in the season. He faded out as the season went on and was basically invisible at the end in the postseason. The RFA showed he’s not capable of doing anything else when he isn’t scoring and only has one way of scoring — from the net front off of rebounds and deflections.
Lazar:
Lazar played well during his short stint with the B’s after being acquired at the trade deadline. However, he’s nothing more than a bottom-six forward and doesn’t deserve protection over any of the forwards protected.
Wagner:
After a very good first season with Boston, Wagner has struggled a bit the previous two seasons. After receiving a three-year extension in November of 2019, the B’s may not even have him in the lineup everyday just two years into the deal.
Kase:
Acquired at the 2020 trade deadline, Kase was brought in the serve as David Krejci’s right wing. However, he’s spent much more time in the press box rather than on the ice as he’s struggled to stay healthy. He also just hasn’t produced when actually healthy.
Kuhlman:
Kuhlman is a hardworking forward, but just doesn’t have the necessary skill to play more than bottom-six minutes. He could possibly replace Wagner on the fourth line in 2021-22 if Wagner continues playing poorly, but other than that he isn’t anything special.
Defensemen protected by the Bruins.
As previously stated, the B’s decided to protect three defensemen for the expansion draft. They are:
- Charlie McAvoy – right defenseman
- Matt Grzelcyk – left defenseman
- Brandon Carlo – right defenseman
Reason for protection:
McAvoy:
McAvoy is the B’s top defenseman. He’s as obvious of a protection as Bergeron and Marchand if they didn’t have NMCs. No way he was being left exposed.
Grzelcyk:
Grzelcyk is Boston’s second-best defenseman, McAvoy defensive partner, and the quarterback for the Black and Gold’s first powerplay unit. Yet another very expected protection.
Carlo:
Although Carlo struggled a bit to stay healthy this season as he sustained multiple concussions, he’s still key piece to Boston’s defense and overall team. He holds down the team’s second D-pairing and kills penalties. Not as easy of a decision to protect like McAvoy and Grzelcyk, but still an expected decision.
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Defensemen left exposed by the Bruins:
- Jeremy Lauzon – left defenseman
- Connor Clifton – right defenseman
- Jakub Zboril – left defenseman
Reason for exposure:
Lauzon:
If Lauzon played just a bit better and didn’t get injured as much this season, he may have warranted a protection. However, he struggled in an increased role and broke his hand two times. His exposure also might have to do with how many forwards the B’s had to protect.
Clifton:
Clifton is in a similar situation to Lauzon. With so many injuries to Boston’s backend this season, Clifton was asked to play almost regularly. He struggled a bit and found his game during the playoffs but ultimately doesn’t warrant a protection over anyone that is protected.
Zboril:
Zboril is one of the three 2015 first-round picks. He started 2020-21 as the B’s third-pair left defenseman but ultimately was injured and lost his job after Mike Reilly was acquired at the deadline. Not to mention, he struggled a decent amount when he was healthy and in the lineup.
Goalie protected by the Bruins:
As each of the 30 teams had to do, the B’s had to protect one goaltender. The netminder the Black and Gold protected was prospect Dan Vladar.
Reason for protection:
Vladar is really the only option to protect. Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak are UFAs, so they don’t have to be protected. Rookie Jeremy Swayman is exempt from exposure as he was a first-year pro. This leaves just Vladar, Callum Booth, and Kyle Keyser as options to protect.
Goalies left exposed by the Bruins.
With Vladar protected, Rask and Halak UFAs, and Swayman exempt, the B’s only have Booth and Keyser left to expose.
Reason for exposure:
Booth and Keyser:
Both Booth and Keyser are depth goalies. They may be backup NHL goaltenders one day, but right now they’re not better than AHL starters. With Vladar being one of the top B’s goalie prospects along with Swayman, Booth and Keyser aren’t going to be protected over him.
Who the Kraken will select from the Bruins.
To me, and several others, there are three options from the B’s that the Kraken may go with. These three options are defensemen Jeremy Lauzon and Connor Clifton, and left wing Nick Ritchie.
Overall, I think the Kraken are more likely to go with one of the defensemen over Ritchie. Ritchie is a decent net-front presence that can give you 10 to 20 goals in a season, but doesn’t give you much of anything else if he isn’t scoring.
Between Lauzon and Clifton, it’s a toss up. Lauzon has the higher floor but pretty low ceiling as he already has top-pair experience as he started the season playing with McAvoy. But as a physical, stay-at-home defenseman, he doesn’t bring you much offense.
Clifton, on the other hand, is also physical but has a higher ceiling as he’s a pretty good skater and could bring you some offense if he can develop.
With that, I think the Kraken will go with Lauzon, who proved he can play on any pairing and can also kill penalties. He’s more consistent and a safer pick than Clifton.
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Either one of these young defensemen being taken will be a significant loss to the B’s as they’ll have to bring in someone to replace them. But, only time will tell which one is the bigger loss.