Boston Bruins: How comparable is Ivan Provorov to Charlie McAvoy?

All the comparables for the new Charlie McAvoy contract are set. The Boston Bruins have the pole position to sign their restricted free agent defenseman.

It seems like nothing new can now happen on the restricted free-agent defenseman front. Is that good news for the Boston Bruins? There is only one big free-agent defenseman left on the market besides Charlie McAvoy, and that is Brandon Carlo.

Yesterday, Ivan Provorov, another big-time defenseman from the Philadelphia Flyers, signed a six-year contract extension worth $6.75 million per season. Is that good or not good for the Boston Bruins and their attempts to get the Charlie McAvoy contract done?

Well, Provorov is a reliable defenseman for the Flyers, for sure. But his stats aren’t the best. Some arguments about Provorov being a better offensive defenseman than McAvoy have been floating around. But that’s not accurate. Last season, Charlie McAvoy recorded 28 points; while the Russian defenseman collected 26 points.

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However, while McAvoy played in only 54 games because of the injuries, Provorov skated in all 82 games. That’s the only advantage Provorov has over McAvoy – he has been able to play one more year than the 21-year-old American and stay healthy throughout his young career; he’s more durable in that regard.

Last season at even-strength, Charlie McAvoy had a Corsi For score of 54.34, a GF% of 56.73 and expected Goals For of 55.59%. Provorov had a CF% at a lowly 47.75, GF% at 44.37 and xGF% at 48.59. McAvoy averaged 18:51 of the ice-time per game at even-strength, while Provorov averaged something over 20 minutes of the time on the ice per contest. Of course though, they were on vastly different teams.

Over the past two seasons, McAvoy has skated in 117 games, while Provorov has taken part in 164 games. That means he hasn’t missed a single game. At even-strength, both have collected 46 points. McAvoy has a 1.25 points-per-game ratio in the NHL, while Provorov has averaged 0.87. Their biggest difference is how both drive the offense.

While Charlie McAvoy averages 92.16 in xGF, Provorov has been at 128.06 in even-strength xGF over the past two campaigns. However, the xGF% for McAvoy was at 54.66, on the other side, Provorov averaged 49.5%. One would state that Provorov has just bigger offensive potential than McAvoy. Nevertheless, McAvoy would collect way more points if he played the same amount of the games as Provorov.

To sum this comparison up, if Provorov signed for six years at $6.75 million per season, that’s a perfect comparison for a new Charlie McAvoy contract. Why? Because on six or seven-year deals, McAvoy should get more.

Zach Werenski and his play are way closer to the hockey of McAvoy, as we already highlighted. His three-year deal worth $5 million is good news for the Boston Bruins. Mainly because if McAvoy demands the same, he should get the same and not more. But if he demands six or more years, as the Russian, he should get well over Provorov’s AAV.

Ivan Provorov’s new deal is not good news for the Boston Bruins, who have try to save every single penny to avoid the salary cap logjam.

It’s also worth stating that while both Werenski and Provorov will be unrestricted free agents in 2023, McAvoy will become such in 2024. That’s why a four or five-year deal doesn’t make much sense for the Boston Bruins.