Boston Bruins: Will Zach Werenski set the price for Charlie McAvoy?
How much would you compare the future contract of Zach Werenski to the future deal that Charlie McAvoy will hopefully sign with the Boston Bruins?
Both players seem very comparable. That draw similarities not only in their style of play, but also to their future contracts in the NHL. The Columbus Blue Jackets and their negotiations with restricted free agent, Zach Werenski will certainly give food for thought for the Boston Bruins negotiations with their own restricted free agent defensemen, Charlie McAvoy.
Zach Werenski was selected as the eighth overall player in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. McAvoy was selected a year later as the 14th overall choice. However, they find themselves in a very similar spot, seeking a first big contract following the expiry of their entry-level deals.
The Boston Bruins will look to Werenski and his next contract as guidance as much as Charlie McAvoy’s camp, no doubt will do. On the other note, the Blue Jackets would hope that the Boston Bruins would make the move first.
Nevertheless, as per the Columbus Dispatch, a deal between the Blue Jackets and Werenski is nearing and all parties involved are optimistic about inking the deal before September 13, when training camp begins for Columbus.
Then, the Boston Bruins should have plenty of time to use this comparative to sign Charlie McAvoy and finally end the saga, just in time for the regular season starting for them in Dallas on October 3. As per the source, Werenski seeks a three-year deal worth at least $5 million per year, but also less than $6 million per season.
Werenski generates more power-play offense
Let’s say that would mean the Blue Jackets were to re-sign Werenski to a three-year contract worth $5.5 million per year. What would that mean for the Boston Bruins and Charlie McAvoy?
Such a deal would make sense for both parties. It’s not a long-term deal, but it’s not a short one-year deal either. It offers the team a little bit of salary cap relief, while it gives the player an option to have the arbitration rights in 2022 off-season, when he would still be a restricted free agent.
The Boston Bruins have approximately $8 million in the salary cap space. If they signed McAvoy in the range of $5 million per year, that would be a perfect short-term solution for their salary cap issues. The source adds that even though Werenski would like to sign a regular long-term deal worth at least $7 million per campaign, he prefers a shorter deal, at least for now.
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Why would Werenski have the upper hand right now?
He has played one full season more than the Boston Bruins’ Charlie McAvoy. While McAvoy has missed almost 50 games in his first two seasons, Werenski has only missed five contests. The health concern sure doesn’t surround Werenski, while the same cannot be said for McAvoy.
In terms of points, Werenski has shown far more of an offensive game than McAvoy. In his past two seasons, he has posted 81 points, while posting 47 points in his rookie year. McAvoy has totalled 60 points during the past two campaigns. However, at even-strength, McAvoy has 46 points and Werenski has 51 points during the past two seasons.
It’s rather clear than Werenski drives his offense from the power-play production. In the playoffs, McAvoy had eight points in 23 games, while Werenski had six points in 10 games. As mentioned before, Werenski might have posted more points in the past two years, but his point-per-game is 0.50, while McAvoy’s at 0.51. It’s still a very tiny margin.
During the past two seasons, Charlie McAvoy has averaged almost 19 minutes of the ice-time per game at the even-strength. Zach Werenski has averaged a little bit less ice-time per game at even-strength in the past two regular seasons.
Once again, in the past two seasons, McAvoy has averaged 54.91 as his Corsi For percentage and 54.66 as his expected Goals For percentage. Werenski has had 52.48 at CF% and 50.43 at xGF%; relatively similar given the different make-up of the Blue Jackets to the Boston Bruins.
Charlie McAvoy has the play-off upper-hand
In the past two playoffs, the story would repeat with McAvoy having better stats at even-strength, while Werenski adds a ton to his numbers on the power play. Both players are ice-time giants; in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Charlie McAvoy averaged 24:30 of the ice-time per game, while Werenski reached 26:37 of the time on the ice per contest.
Looking to other statistics; in the 2018-19 regular season, McAvoy had 91 blocks and 92 hits, while Werenski has marked 89 blocks and 67 hits. Keep in mind that Werenski didn’t miss a game, while McAvoy has missed 28 total meetings – safe to say that McAvoy is the more physical of the two.
To sum this up, McAvoy has better overall stats, mainly at the even-strength. However, Werenski has put more points on the board and he eats up more of his team’s ice-time. Besides, he has never been seriously injured and has played one year longer in the NHL than Charlie McAvoy. It’s almost as if McAvoy is clearly a better overall defenseman, but Werenski has proven himself that little bit more.
If Werenski settles down on a three-year deal worth $5.5 million per campaign, McAvoy shouldn’t reach that but should be right below it. That would be excellent news for the Boston Bruins and their short-term salary-cap crunch.
Notwithstanding, from a long-term standpoint, locking McAvoy to a long seven-year deal would be the best option. But as per source in Columbus, that’s also a preference of Zach Werenski, which is probably not happening.
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However, it would be very interesting if both Werenski and McAvoy signed a same three-year deal, Werenski would take $5.5 million per year and McAvoy something less, let’s guess, $5 million per season deal. The comparison made in 2022 would look intriguing for sure.