Boston Bruins: Three comparable contracts for Brandon Carlo to ponder
The Boston Bruins are yet to re-sign either of their stud restricted free agent defensemen; Brandon Carlo is arguably the harder to put a price tag on.
Given that Charlie McAvoy is widely regarded as the future of the franchise on the blue-line, it’s fair to say he can command number one defensemen money coming into restricted free agency. Brandon Carlo is clearly destined for a role in the Boston Bruins top four for the foreseeable future but doesn’t exactly predict to be a number-one guy.
As such, finding a contract that balances his potential to be that perfect defensive defenseman that you want to be able to offset the offensively-minded guys, is a bit of a challenge. Even finding comparable contracts proves somewhat challenging.
See, Brandon Carlo has barely missed a game in his three seasons with the Boston Bruins; only managing 72 games last season was a low for him. Add in the fact that he didn’t miss a game on the team’s run to the Stanley Cup Final and it’s safe to say he holds value.
Much has been made about both McAvoy and Carlo signing (or as the case is, not yet signing) new deals with the team, likely because they’re so dependent upon what the other does. Neither wants to take a deal first for fear it either ruins the cap structure to get their teammate back in the fold or that they end up going under-paid comparatively.
Both men, no doubt, need to make some exceptions to ensure that they’re both back with the Boston Bruins in time for training camp. It’s really a game of who flinches first though at this stage. That and it’s likely in the hands of the player’s agents, rather than themselves directly.
Around the league, there’s plenty of restricted free agents that are still sitting unsigned, however we’ve managed to find three that inked deals this summer and may be good comparisons for Brandon Carlo, his agent and the Boston Bruins to be putting on the table at contract negotiations.
Neal Pionk (Winnipeg Jets)
He may not be the fanciest name out there, but it’s fair to look at the season Neal Pionk put up with a lowly New York Rangers side last year and compare him very directly to Brandon Carlo.
In fact, Neal Pionk was a far more active point producer for New York, despite of course being on a team that was in competing more for the number one draft pick than the Stanley Cup.
Pionk managed to score six goals and add twenty assists compared to Brandon Carlo and his two goals and eight assists; however, what is telling is their difference in plus/minus scores. Pionk rocked a miserable minus-16 whereas Brandon Carlo was a plus-22.
Safe to say that even given the fact Pionk was playing for a basement dweller, Brandon Carlo out-produced him in the defensive zone, more than making up for the sixteen additional points the Rangers’ defensman tallied.
This past season, the pair were near-equal despite their team’s differing plights in most categories outside of scoring; Pionk had 98 hits and 138 blocks, Carlo had 88 hits and 134 blocks. Likewise, they tallied very similar numbers of takeaways; 38 and 43 respectively, though Brandon Carlo had an upper-hand with giveaways, only coughing up 42 to Pionk’s 60.
In the summer, Neal Pionk signed with the Winnipeg Jets after being traded for fellow restricted free agent Jacob Trouba.
His deal is a two-year one worth $3 million per season; if the Boston Bruins could re-ink Bradon Carlo at the same price point and for the same term, they’d be laughing; especially as hefty deals such as the Kevan Miller and David Backes contracts won’t be a problem in two years’ time
The core difference between Pionk and Carlo though is one that works in the Bruins’ defenseman’s favor – the former New York Rangers player barely has 100 NHL games to his name and no play-off experience; the Boston Bruins defenseman is nearing 250 regular-season games with a solid chunk of play-off experience to his name, namely this past year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final.
The key value that Carlo brings over Pionk is a bit more experience, with three NHL season’s under his belt to one and a bit. However, the $3 million deal signed by the Winnipeg Jets is certainly a strong starting point for the Boston Bruins’ negotiations.
Ryan Murray (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Assuming the Boston Bruins want to sign Brandon Carlo to a short-term deal, thus allowing them to offer more to Charlie McAvoy, then Ryan Murray is an comparison they’d want to try to avoid.
The Columbus Blue Jackets haven’t had the greatest of summers, losing Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene, Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin to unrestricted free agency. They then inked a deal that it’s arguable may seem like an over-spend, even though it’s only two years of term.
More from Editorials
- Pavel Zacha’s veteran status leading to bigger role in 2023-24
- The Bruins should take a look at these four free agents
- Why the Bruins should wait to name a captain until after the season
- 3 players the Bruins can, 3 players could trade, 3 players they shouldn’t trade
- It’s time to offer Jake DeBrusk a contract extension
Now granted, Ryan Murray’s best point totals came last season, even though he only saw action in 56 regular-season games for the Blue Jackets – if you factor his 29 points across a full season, you’re assuming he’s at least a forty-point guy, hence you take a risk with a slightly bigger contract.
However, the Boston Bruins wouldn’t really be wanting to go near a comparable two-year deal when it comes to Brandon Carlo. After all, Murray will earn $4.6 million against the salary cap these next two seasons and last managed a full 82-game workload in the 2015-16 season.
Comparing their statistics, it’s fair to say the Murray brings significantly more offensive production than Carlo, but also manages to perform positively for his team as well, rocking a plus-20 plus/minus score last year; very close to Carlo’s score for the Bruins.
What’s more he did so whilst disadvantaging his team less so than Brandon Carlo, tallying just 10 penalty minutes to the Bruins’ blue-liner’s 47. What is clear though is that it’s hard to draw a very direct comparison; Ryan Murray hits far less but tallied more shot blocks, even in his significantly shortened season.
Having been around the league a few seasons longer than Carlo, albeit not having anywhere near the same level of play-off experience, it’s fair to use Murray as a comparison, possibly to the top-end of the salary that Brandon Carlo may be able to command from the Boston Bruins.
Nikita Zadorov (Colorado Avalanche)
Nikita Zadorov has been about the league for around five seasons now and is two years older than Brandon Carlo, but if you look at them side-by-side last season, you’d have to say they’re both playing a similar style looking solely at the base statistics.
Zadorov was a fourteen-point man with a plus-19 plus/minus score for the Colorado Avalanche. That points total sits relatively consistently with his production across all of his previous NHL seasons, whether with the Avalanche or his previous side, the Buffalo Sabres.
Carlo, for comparison, had his best points total in his very first season in the league managing 16 points before that tailed off to just six points and then upped slightly back to 10 last year. He isn’t put in a position to be a point-producer but is relied upon in a far more important defensive role; Zadorov is used similarly in Colorado.
The contract Nikita Zadorov signed represents one that as a comparable may hold some appeal to Carlo if he decides to just go for a one-year term. Next season, the Avalanche will shell out $3.2 million against the cap for a single year of service before negotiating all over again.
Whilst that may not appeal greatly to the management of the Boston Bruins, it may appeal to the player who could decide to back himself to lift his points game and demand far higher come the end of next year.
Next year’s free agency right now doesn’t look any easier than this one either; David Backes’ deal will still have a year to run and Carlo’s regular defensive partner this season, Torey Krug will be looking to cash in as an unrestricted free agent.
You sure as heck use Zadorov as a comparison if you’re Brandon Carlo though; if he chooses to go this route, $3.2 million for one contracted year seems like a reasonable deal for him, if even a tiny bit high for the team.
Conclusion
A contract will no doubt eventually get inked and fact is, it’s hard to predict just how much term or the dollar value of that deal – Brandon Carlo has just this summer been to the Stanley Cup Final with the Boston Bruins and has to believe they can do it again.
Perhaps telling when you look at comparable terms inked by restricted free agents is that seven year deals appear almost to be off the table. Everyone is signing shortened deals, some even just the single year, banking on both their own improvement and hoping, we presume, that the cap goes up further with the new Seattle team arriving soon.
Boston Bruins fans should have faith that management will get this done; they’re not about to let two incredibly talented young defensemen go unsigned, especially given team captain, Zdeno Chara, for so long the defensive face of the franchise is possibly on his last go around this year.
We’d like to think that Brandon Carlo commits to a seven-year deal at a very reasonable price but the more this summer wears on, the more you’re starting to expect bridge-type deals to be inked with these restricted free agents if for nothing but to break the deadlock.
Contract stand-offs like this are seemingly the new normal. It’s not just Brandon Carlo, nor his teammate McAvoy doing it; it’s the likes of Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine, Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk and countless others around the league not signing the first deal that comes across the table too.
Perhaps the Boston Bruins would’ve preferred it all go the route of Sebastian Aho, whose acceptance of an offer-sheet from the Montreal Canadiens meant that the Carolina Hurricanes got a deal done early and can see out the summer stress-free in that regard.
dark. Next. What does this Alex Petrovic experiment mean?
Whatever the case, Carlo needs to be back and hopefully these contracts are the ones his team are looking at; they, for the most part, should be reasonable on the team.