Boston Bruins: How much term can they afford with Charlie McAvoy?
The Boston Bruins need to renew restricted free agent defenseman, Charlie McAvoy this summer, that’s a given. The big question is what sort of term can they afford to offer.
Thankfully, the data modelling has been completed by other (much smarter) people. The Evolving Wild project uses some incredibly clever data analysis to project skater contract renewals; we’ve used this to assess the potential costings for the Boston Bruins and where they fit Charlie McAvoy.
Incredibly the Evolving Wild team has been quite accurate so far this free agency. They, for example, projected an eight-year deal at a cap hit of $11.172 million for Artermi Panarin. His eventual deal with the New York Rangers was a seven-year term at $11.642 million. There’s a slight overpay when you compare their projected 7 year cost, but that was always expected to secure Panarin’s signature.
Similarly, they projected Jeff Skinner to be secured at $8.34 million for 8 years; not far from his eventual $9 million deal. Joe Pavelski, they almost got spot-on picking 3 years at $7.4 million; the eventual deal being a $7 million three-year one.
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Conclusion is, their data modelling produces incredibly accurate projections, hence why we’re looking at it to evaluate the potential cost of renewing Charlie McAvoy.
To do this, we’ll first assume that Danton Heinen signs a two-year deal for their projection of $2.8 million and Brandon Carlo secures himself a six year contract at $4.235 million.
If they’re accurate in their projections for these two, we know the Boston Bruins will have cap space of just $3 million to play with, unless they do something drastic to move some salary off the books.
With that little space, you’re not going to secure Charlie McAvoy’s signature, plain and simple. Even a two-year deal is projected to cost $5.3 million; so basically, the Boston Bruins have to find at least $2 million in spare change to offer even a very short bridge deal.
Now, the positive thing is that this is achievable, provided the market is willing to make moves for Kevan Miller, John Moore or David Backes. The ideal scenario would be to shed the cap hit of all three players; which would open up almost $11 million to play with.
Realistically, the cost to do so would likely be steep; you have to consider that David Backes only gets moved if coupled with a significant prospect or draft pick – if that is the case, it also requires substantial manoeuvring to convince Backes to agree a trade to a team with the cap space, given they don’t exactly look like contenders – we’re thinking the Ottawa Senators look good as a partner, but doubt he’d agree.
However, if somehow this does happen, suddenly just removing Backes’ cap hit opens up room to play. If that occured, even if the Boston Bruins took back a couple of million, we’re still in the realm of $7 million to work with on a Charlie McAvoy contract. Based on the Evolving Wild model, these are the potential contract lengths and projected costs:
- 1 year: $5,243,619
- 2 years: $5,300,796
- 3 years: $6,474,513
- 4 years: $6,337,871
- 5 years: $6,774,179
- 6 years: $7,129,068
- 7 years: $6,538,787
- 8 years: $7,640,834
At a glance, you look at the four year deal as the best possible value the Boston Bruins could achieve. That gives the team another chance to negotiate with Charlie McAvoy as a restricted free agent; it gives him the chance to hedge his bets a little, given he’ll still only be 25 years old in four years.
Essentially, it’d be a win for both sides. However, it’s all predicated on Heinen and Carlo playing ball and shifting the salaries of other roster players. This summer is certainly shaping up to be one that sees Boston Bruins fans sweating. Not because of the heat, but because they know Charlie McAvoy needs to be paid and there’s no clear-cut way to find the money without a bit of shrewd negotiation on Don Sweeney‘s part.
The maths is challenging, but we have the General Manager of the Year at the helm; hopefully he can get it done.