Boston Bruins: Five Predictions For The Upcoming Season
By Joseph Ochs
With hockey back in The Hub, here are five predictions for the Boston Bruins 2016-2017 Season
Hockey!
Can you feel the chill in the air? Can you smell that fireplace in the distance? Can you taste the cider, and pumpkin…..everything? Hockey is back in Boston, and all is right in the world. With the Red Sox stinking worse than that kid in the locker room who doesn’t air-out his equipment, and Tom Terrific and the Pats looking as automatic as ever, focus and scrutiny shift to the boys in Black & Gold. With question marks abounding, I present (without further ado) five predictions for the Boston Bruins and their upcoming campaign.
Tuukka Rask Bounces Back
The 2015-2016 Season saw Tuukka Rask post his worst stat line since the 2010-2011 campaign, when he ceded starting duties back to Boston legend (and famed libertarian) Tim Thomas. With a maligned and porous blueline in front of him, ‘Tuukk’ saw more rubber than the Mass Pike. The chances against were not only plentiful, but also of high quality. Boston struggled mightily to clear the crease in front of their netminder, allowing generous and frequent second and third opportunities to the opposition. Moreover, for the second year in a row Boston failed to ice a backup goaltender capable of spelling Rask in an attempt to keep him fresh as the season wore on.
While question marks still surround the blueline, the prevailing belief is that Rask’s marks last season were an aberration. He’s a Top 10 netminder, a former Vezina Trophy winner, a kooky Finn, and an extremely competitive guy. Rask rode his solid play in the World Cup to a 27 save shutout in his preseason debut against the Flyers, making several quality stops along the way. Claude Julien‘s assertion that the team will play more aggresively, both in terms of decision making as well as closing in quicker on would-be attackers bodes well for the volume of chances Rask is set to face.
Brandon Carlo and Rob O’Gara are two big guys with a little nasty to their game, and both appear to already have the awareness necessary to play in the NHL. The mindset of “that’s my crease,” is front and center with Carlo in particular, meaning Rask is likely to face significantly fewer second and third chances from the slot.
Torey Krug and Colin Miller continue to mature as players, and their abilities in transition should hopefully lead to cleaner exits, and more time spent in the other half of the rink. Beyond the internal promotions, I personally have a hard time believing Boston won’t make a move at some point during the season to bring in some help from outside the organization, which inherently upgrades the play in front of Rask.
And finally, Anton Khudobin is back in town, and represents a significant upgrade over the likes of Niklas Svedberg (who rode one solid season in Providence to a backup job in Boston) and Jonas Gustavsson, who was brought in on a PTO in mid-September, and received the backup job almost exclusively by default. Khudobin should allow Rask to play fewer than 60 games this season, keeping Tuukka fresh for the long haul. The criticism that Rask didn’t steal enough games for the Bruins last season is a just one; goaltenders making $7 million per season are expected to do a better job of bailing out their team than Rask did last season. Changes to personnel and philosophy as well as the law of averages all suggest that Rask is poised for a bounceback campaign.
David Pastrnak Breaks Out
Heading into his third campaign, David Pastrnak has plenty of things going for him and is poised for a breakout campaign. Still just 20 years old, the Czech native has posted 25 goals and 53 points over his first 97 games, good for an average of 21 goals and 45 points per 82 games. He’s set to begin the season on a line with All-World players Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, two guys who absolute dominate possession; the chances will be plentiful. With Loui Eriksson‘s departure, “Pasta” will be seeing significantly more time on the power play than in years past as well.
The knock on Pastrnak up to this point has been his health. He missed 30 games last season due to injury, and missed time during his rookie season as well. As a preventative measure (as well as the general physical maturation process), Pasta is tipping the scales at over 180 pounds heading into the season. The hope is that the added bulk (as well as increased awareness and experience) will allow Pastrnak to better withstand the physical rigors of a full NHL season.
With extra muscle to his frame, two world class linemates, and increased opportunities with the man advantage, David Pastrnak appears to be on the precipice of a great campaign. Should he stay healthy, you can put Pasta down for 20+ goals and 55+ points.
Carlo, Heinen, and Czarnik Play Entire Season In Boston
Just one month ago, this seemed about as likely as a Gary Johnson Presidency. Maybe one or two, but all three? I myself wrote about how Austin Czarnik’s frame and lack of pro experience would likely keep him in Providence for another year. Danton Heinen was a fourth round pick just two years ago, and though fourth round picks make NHL rosters all the time, they seldomly do so this quickly. Brandon Carlo’s inclusion seemed the likeliest of the bunch, due to the state of things on Boston’s blueline. But the former second round pick was arguably Boston’s best defenseman of the preseason, and I’m including everyone in that statement.
All three will be dressing Thursday night based 100% on merit. Heinen’s playmaking ability and tremendous Hockey IQ have been on display since Day One, and he’ll be starting the season in the Top 6. Czarnik’s similar playmaking ability, quickness, and tenacity on the forecheck have earned him the trust of Boston’s coaching staff, and have allowed Claude Julien to explore Ryan Spooner at left wing within the Top 6; a move that paid immediate dividends in the preseason.
Moreover, his ascension has the front office feeling even more confident now to explore trades to bolster the back end, as the center position has become the organization’s overwhelming strength. Carlo has shown poise, positioning, and snarl beyond his 19 years. He has the frame, skating ability, and good fortune of being a defenseman on an ELC for a club that needs all the help it can get on the back end.
With the organization set on infusing young talent to supplement its core, the aforementioned three will begin the season with the parent club. And despite the hiccups that will certainly occur along the way, all three have provided the Bruins with exactly the kind of jolt and versatility required to stick around.
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Boston Bruins Acquire Cam Fowler or Jacob Trouba by December 1
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Fowler and Trouba have combined to comprise roughly 75% of all Bruins offseason rumors, if not more. With a glaring need for blueline help in Boston, a trade request and holdout in Winnipeg, and a severe cap crunch with TWO holdouts in Anaheim the fit is there.
Bruins Insider Jimmy Murphy reported on Wednesday that the Bruins had recently inquired (again) about Fowler’s availability, and that there had been chatter amongst scouts that the B’s, Jets, and Islanders could be exploring a three-way trade. And with Boston recently losing two of its right-handed vets to injury (with Kevan Miller out long term), a thin blue line just got even thinner. With owner Jeremy Jacobs going on record this week that he expects ” a deep playoff run,” you can bet he’s going to put pressure on and embolden the front office to make a splash to do so.
My last piece was dedicated exclusively to Boston’s attempts to acquire Fowler, and that Ryan Spooner’s audition at left wing was likely with Fowler in mind. That’s not to say that it was done EXCLUSIVELY with this is mind, but considering Anaheim’s lack of skilled depth at wing (particularly left wing) the timing of Spooner’s audition alludes to something bigger. The Ducks are set to begin the season without their best defenseman (Lindholm) and a rising Top 6 forward (Rakell) due to cap constraints.
Spooner’s playmaking ability, newly-discovered versatility, and friendly cap hit ($950,000 for one more season) would all be a boon to an Anaheim team that’s beginning the season handcuffed. Not only would a Fowler/Spooner+ swap enable the Ducks to sign Lindholm, but it would allow them to play hardball with Rakell’s camp. Spooner remains under team control as a RFA at season’s end, and his ability to play center and left wing would provide Anaheim with some much-needed flexibility to swap Rakell for a 1st round pick or more, worst case scenario.
As for the Bruins-Jets-Isles reported ménage à trois, this is where things get really interesting. Winnipeg is reportedly seeking a left-handed defenseman of comparable age and talent, something Boston does not possess. To be honest, I don’t think there’s a team in the league who has that player and also a desire to trade them. Of course Winnipeg is going to shoot for the moon on this one; doing so will at least net them as close to that return as possible.
Armed with an array of centers, prospects, and picks instead of that aforementioned lefty, Boston does not appear to have the sufficient and necessary ammunition to land Trouba, as Winnipeg is loaded with young skill throughout the roster. The Bruins and Isles, however, do make for interesting trade partners. And, by extension, the same can be said for the Isles and the Jets.
With Frans Nielsen‘s departure to Detroit this offseason, the Islanders sustained a significant blow to their depth at the center position. To varying degrees, Ryan Strome, Matthew Barzal, Alan Quine, and Shane Prince offer youth, skill, and talent. None appears to be ready to hold down a spot centering the second line behind Jon Tavares. Strome would be the most likely candidate, but regressed badly last season, putting up 28 points in 71 games. Casey Cizikas is a Bottom 6 center. He’s a good one, but his skill set does not translate to a Top 6 role.
With roughly $8 million in cap space and a serious need at the position, the Islanders could very well be in the market for a center. The Bruins have more than a few to choose from. The Islanders could absorb David Krejci‘s contract even without accounting for the contract(s) they’d be shipping out. Once again, Ryan Spooner and his friendly cap hit could be combined with picks and prospects to facilitate a deal.
As for players going from New York to Winnipeg, the Isles have Nick Leddy, Calvin de Haan, and Thomas Hickey manning the left side of their back end. All are talented two-way rearguards, close in age to Trouba, and expendable for the right price, given Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and Scott Mayfield‘s presence in the organization. Attempting to speculate any further regarding which players, prospects, and picks get sent to which team as part of a three-way trade would likely induce severe nausea, so I’ll cap things here.
In summation, I believe it’s likely that Boston acquires one of these two defenseman prior to the December 1 RFA cutoff, with Fowler being the most likely.
Next: Spooner Auditions At Left Wing For Bruins....And Ducks?
The Boston Bruins Make The Playoffs
Yes, I am a Bruins fan. And yes, as a fan I certainly hope for the best for the Black & Gold. But I’m also a fan of the game itself, I’m well aware of Boston’s shortcomings, and I truly believe that the Bruins are primed for a return to the playoffs.
If we’re counting “locks” to make the playoffs, I have Tampa Bay and Florida out of the Atlantic, as well as Washington and Pittsburgh out of the Metropolitan. Another team from the Met automatically gets a spot, so I’ll go on record and label the Islanders as that team. That leaves three playoff spots up for grabs, with the Canadiens, Flyers, and Rangers as Boston’s stiffest competition. Detroit edged out Boston via tiebreaker last season, and have since lost their best player in Pavel Datsyuk. New Jersey has been a trendy sleeper pick following their acquisition of Taylor Hall, but the blue line they’re icing in front of All-Star Cory Schneider is arguably worse than Boston’s, and they lack Boston’s depth and impact players at forward.
From a purely statistical outlook, the odds favor the Boston Bruins claiming one of the three final spots. From a talent perspective, I don’t believe that any of Montreal, Philadelphia, or the New York Rangers are in better shape than Boston. Any difference between the four teams is negligible. Consider this: Other than the eight consecutive years between 1960-1967 that Boston missed the playoffs (yowzah), the franchise has never missed the playoffs three years in a row. The organization even followed that eight year drought with an NHL record 29 consecutive postseason appearances.
I’m not saying that Boston will win the Cup this year (they won’t), or even make a deep run. But the odds do appear to be in their favor to still be playing hockey when the calendar flips to May. A strong core is in place. Youth, speed, and talent are being infused to supplement the core. Several players are primed for breakout or bounceback campaigns. The front office is under pressure to facilitate moves in the here and now to improve the blueline. The bottom half of the Eastern Conference is wide open. And on top of this, history suggests that Boston doesn’t miss the playoffs three years in a row.
It’s Gametime. Go Bruins.